"Socialism!"

In the past few years, Republicans have found "socialism" to be the go-to word when they want to put a scare into their fellows. The word is sloppily defined; it tends to mean any government program Republicans don't like. (Recently Jonah Goldberg wrestled with the term; here is Jonathan Chait's assessment of Goldberg's effort.) With respect to this socialism-phobia, I divide the Republicans into three groups:

1. The true believers. These folks are frightened and furious about the turn our government has taken. The health care bill is the biggest abomination, but the automotive and bank bail-outs probably also fall within this category. Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security also get the "socialist" label, when the true believers are being honest with one another. And anything carrying that label is a horror which must be exorcised from our nation. I suspect the largest group of Republicans fall in this category.

2. The cynics. These Republicans find the word "socialism" is a dandy way to keep the troops fired up and to keep themselves in power.

3. The go-alongs. These are the politicians who are happy to ride on the coattails of the first two groups.

We can safely ignore the third group. The other two groups take four approaches to the programs tainted by "socialism":

1. Kill. This is the only truly satisfying approach for the true believers. These bad programs must be repealed!

2. Poison the well. If the programs can't be repealed, additional provisions can be enacted to make the programs cumbersome or unattractive. Exemptions can be carved out for one's allies.

3. Defang administratively. Put the programs in the charge of people who will ignore the law or come up with regulations to make the programs ineffective.

4. Make lemonade. If a program can't be abolished, it can at least be privatized. One of the galling features of government agencies is that they can't make campaign contributions. However, if you turn a program over to your friends in private industry, two wonderful things happen: Your friends get to peel off a sizable bit of taxpayer money and put it into their own pocket as administrative cost and mandatory profit; and a bit of that profit will make its way back to you as campaign contributions. The idea of soaking the taxpayers to keep themselves in power is sweet nectar to the cynics. The true believers should find the idea unpleasant; they won't want to see themselves as parasites of socialism.

The depth of passion against "socialism" today means that the next time the Republicans are in power, we should expect each of the programs mentioned above to be attacked in one or more of these ways. In other words, you should vote Republican if you are comfortable saying goodbye to universal health care, Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security; otherwise, you really should consider the Democrats (or some other alternative). This will be bitter for some, but it's where we seem to stand today.

How long will this mania last? We can get an idea from looking at the Democrats. A few decades ago, those on the left went comparably berserk at the mention of the word "nuclear," whether it referred to energy production or weaponry. Today there's still a strong anti-nuclear sentiment on the left, but it's no longer monolithic. True, there are still politicians who use "nuclear" as a scare word. But at least with respect to nuclear energy, a fair number of Democrats are ready to endorse new plant construction. So with respect to the "socialism" phobia, I wouldn't advise electing Republicans again until around 2030 or maybe 2040.